Sovereignty through decarbonisation: a necessary path for France et Europe

The energy sovereignty team of the Shift Project is pleased to publish its final report “Sovereignty through decarbonization: a necessary path for France and Europe“.

You can download the final report.

Because energy is essential to our economy, The Shift Project wanted to highlight France’s exposure to energy risk. After a first publication in April 2025, the research teams continued their unprecedented work of mapping and quantifying energy flows in France from 1995 to 2022. 

The diagnosis is clear: more than 70% of our lifestyles and businesses still depend on fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal), a share that has not declined since 1995. In a context marked by the gradual exhaustion of critical oil and gas sources for Europe, and by the return of strong geopolitical tensions, dependence on supplier countries outside Europe puts our economies at risk. Decarbonization is no longer just a climate necessity; it is an indispensable condition for our sovereignty.

The Shift Project team has developed a modeling tool to track all stages of energy production and consumption, up to taking into account embedded energy in imports of goods and services, called “grey energy”.  

Our figures highlight our energy exposure – in other words, the energy needed for the country to function:

• to support the lifestyles of the French – supply a boiler for heating, cultivate and process foodstuffs for food, run the engines of private vehicles, ensure production – both domestically and internationally goods consumed in France, etc.
• to supply French economic activities – to operate factories, maintain networks, transport goods, power agricultural machinery, heat buildings, etc.

Taking into account the energy produced and consumed on the territory, but also that associated with our imports of goods and services and that contained in our exports, the notion of “energy exposure” is for us the most comprehensive way to highlight our energy dependencies.

No sovereignty without control over access to energy, whether it is an economic, industrial, health, digital, or even military sovereignty issue. Yet France produces only 1/5 of its final energy needs (500 out of 2500 TWh) to run its businesses and maintain our lifestyles. The rest of our energy needs are imported directly (54%), or indirectly through the “grey energy” (27%) contained in our imports of goods and services.

France’s direct energy imports amounted to nearly 1,400 TWh and €150 billion in 2022. They are made up of 98% fossil fuels (mainly oil and natural gas). 

Finally, a quarter of our energy exposure is due to the embedded energy in goods and services imported by France – more than all the energy that the country produces annually.

Dependence on fossil fuels threatens Europe’s economic future and its competitiveness. Directly or indirectly, 70% of France’s economy is based on fossil fuels (oil, coal gas). This exposes France:

• to geopolitical risks (international political crises, social or economic instability in exporting countries, etc.): 9 of France’s top 10 oil suppliers and 7 of its top 10 natural gas suppliers are located outside European borders; the United States and Russia are now exerting geostrategic pressure on the European Union through their hydrocarbon export capabilities. 
• to risks to energy availability (price shocks, supply disruptions along the value chain, etc.): 7 of France’s top 10 oil suppliers and 4 of its top 10 natural gas suppliers are likely to see their production decline sharply by 2050 –  notably in the North Sea and on the African continent according to previous studies by the Shift Project, published in 2021 and 2022. 

Decarbonising France and Europe means reducing our structural vulnerability to future energy and geopolitical crises. This physical reading of our economy reveals a clear observation: our competitiveness, in the medium and long term, will depend on our ability to decarbonise. 

• Plan our decarbonisation and reindustrialize on a European scale to gain competitiveness over time

80% of the energy needed to run the French economy is consumed in France or in Europe, compared to only 20% related to non-European imports of goods and services. This means that most of France’s energy risk can be reduced by decarbonisation and reindustrialisation of the European continent. A full-fledged French and European industrial policy is therefore essential to ensure the resilience of our economy. 

• Electrify uses, plan the release of fossils, diversify the low-carbon mix

The massification of electrification (transport, heating, industry) is essential to move away from fossil fuels. Low-carbon fuels (biogas, hydrogen, synthetic fuels) must be reserved for non-electrifiable uses. At the same time, we must organise the gradual exit of fossil-fuel infrastructure: the disappearance of gas and oil boilers, reduction of gas networks, reconversion of service stations.
This implies supporting a robust low-carbon mix, combining renewable energies (solar, wind, hydro, biomass) and nuclear. Each sector has its limits and uncertainties; deploying all the levers in parallel will limit the risks.

• Arbitrate the request: efficiency and moderation

Without a structural decline in energy demand, decarbonisation and sovereignty will remain out of reach. According to the work of the Shift Project, French energy consumption must be halved by 2050. This implies strong policies of energy efficiency (thermal renovation, efficient electrification, etc.) and sobriety (appropriate infrastructure, regulation, incentives, taxation, etc.). Efficiency and sobriety are essential to ensure a sustainable, resilient and sovereign energy system.

• Théo Wittersheim, Scientific and technical publishing officer, The Shift Project
• Alexandre Barré, Public affairs advisor, The Shift Project & The Shifters
• Clément Caudron, Project Manager, Robust Transition Strategy, The Shift Project
• Noémie Rebière, Project Manager for DEFENDRE, The Shift Project
• Héloïse Lesimple, Assistant Manager of Public Affairs, The Shift Project
• Mona Poulain, communication and events managerl

Press contact: mona.poulain@theshiftproject.org