The Shift Project launches ‘Energy Foresight’

Europe faces an unprecedented challenge: achieving carbon neutrality while rapidly reducing its dependence on fossil fuels. Meeting this challenge will require major decisions at both national and European levels.

Energy and climate scenarios play a crucial role in providing input to public debate and supporting decision-making. Rather than predicting the future, they help anticipate the challenges and trade-offs involved in reaching net zero by 2050, while exploring a range of credible pathways to achieve it.

Through its new Prospective Europe initiative, The Shift Project aims to strengthen the scientific foundations of energy and climate foresight and contribute to the development of more robust, transparent and useful scenarios for policymakers.

Across Europe, a wide range of foresight exercises are produced by academic institutions, public bodies and private organisations. While methodologies vary, they generally share three objectives: understanding current dynamics, anticipating future developments and identifying possible courses of action.

Since 2011, The Shift Project has been developing energy and climate transition scenarios and contributing to methodological discussions on foresight. Every two years, it convenes the Science for Energy Scenarios seminar at the École de Physique des Houches, bringing together researchers and practitioners working on long-term energy modelling.

In 2019, The Shift Project launched an initiative focused on the future of the European electricity system. This work resulted in a methodological guide for scenario developers, accompanied by a synthesis report and a policy-oriented summary for decision-makers.

The new Prospective Europe project expands this approach to the broader energy and climate system.

Working alongside European scenario developers, foresight practitioners and subject-matter experts, The Shift Project will assess the strengths and limitations of existing approaches and identify opportunities for improvement.

The ambition is to co-develop, with stakeholders from across Europe, a methodological framework that can help make energy and climate scenario-building a more rigorous, transparent and scientifically grounded discipline.

The project will also explore how foresight studies influence public policy and decision-making processes, and how their impact can be strengthened

The outcomes of the project would contribute to improving the European Union’s National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) and Long-Term Strategies (LTSs), while also informing discussions on key issues shaping the transition.

By fostering dialogue on topics such as biomass, carbon sinks, hydrogen, critical raw materials and other strategic resources, the initiative aims to strengthen the analytical foundations of European energy and climate policies.

1. Mapping existing practices. The project will begin with a review of European energy and climate foresight studies, complemented by discussions with experts from across the continent. This phase will establish a shared understanding of the key components of foresight and the methods currently in use, bringing together scenario developers from academia, public institutions and the private sector.
2. Identifying best practices. Building on this analysis, the project will identify best practices and areas for improvement. These findings will be discussed with foresight specialists and experts from a range of disciplines and geographical backgrounds, extending the dialogue beyond Europe and drawing on relevant academic research.
3. Developing methodological guidance. For each identified area of improvement, dedicated guidance documents will be produced. These will review the current state of knowledge and highlight the key questions that scenario developers should address when designing energy and climate futures.

• For any request related to the project : Patrick Margaria, patrick.margaria@theshiftproject.org
• Communication, press : Ilana Toledano, ilana.toledano@theshiftproject.org