The Centre d’Analyse Stratégique (a research-based advisory institution under the authority of the French Prime Minister) recently published a policy brief on increasingly volatile and sustained high oil prices. In its very well-documented brief, the CAS tackles the imminent – if not already under way – peak in oil production as well as its probable negative consequences on the economy, citing the IMF among other sources. The CAS thus advocates for a drastic reduction in consumption patterns, which is also the most sensible path to reduce the impact of climate change.
The Shift’s contribution to the brief (currently available in French only) was made possible by one of its co-authors, expert Olivier Rech. Graph 7, page 8 shows the evolution of past oil scenarios by the International Energy Agency since the 1990’s, thus making it possible to consider past projections in relation to effective world oil demand.
For more information and graphs showing the evolution of price-based scenarios, read this article published by the Shift a few months ago.
