A study by a German military think tank, the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Centre, has analyzed how “peak oil” may change the global economy. For the very first time, an institution such as the Bundeswehr, the German military, uses the term “peak oil” at all, showing how carefully the German government has considered a potential energy crisis. The study that leaked onto the German blogosphere goes even further. Directed by Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Will, it draws up an alarming assessment of the depletion of raw materials (notably oil). It predicts shifts in the global balance of power, and warns of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the “total collapse of the markets” and of serious political and economic crises.
The Spiegel online confirmed the authenticity of the document mentioning sources in government circles. However, the study was not meant for publication. The document is said to be in draft stage and to consist solely of scientific opinion, which has not yet been edited by the Defence Ministry and other government bodies.
See below the article in English and the study in German :