Energy

In transport, cars, light commercial vehicles, and trucks switch to electric motors. In buildings, heat pumps cover most heating needs. Many industries electrify their processes and relocate certain supply chains (which increases their energy demand). In each sector, the most complex energy uses to electrify continue to rely on other energy carriers.

To meet the growing demand for electricity and heat, national energy production must rise again. On the electricity side, existing nuclear is extended, and new renewable and nuclear capacities are deployed. In parallel, low-carbon heat and cooling solutions are developed (heat pumps, solar thermal, geothermal, waste heat recovery, etc.).

The most complex energy uses to electrify will continue to depend on liquid or gaseous fuels. The sectors concerned are agriculture (farm machinery), industry (raw material extraction), and transport (trucks, ships, planes). Low-carbon fuel and gas production chains must be structured to meet these needs. However, their development will be limited by agricultural land availability and the share of electricity allocated to them.

Constraints on low-carbon energy production (electricity, biofuels, etc.) require a gradual reduction in overall energy consumption. This happens through efficiency (thermal renovation, improved equipment and processes, etc.) and through sufficiency, enabled by structural measures (infrastructure and industries that foster more frugal practices), organizational measures (regulations, incentives, taxes), and individual behaviors (diet, mobility).

Fossil fuels have almost disappeared from French energy consumption by 2050. The French economy and activities have become immune to potential supply disruptions or oil shocks. GHG emissions linked to energy use fall from about 300 MtCO₂e to 10 MtCO₂e, drastically reducing the climate impact of energy.

Thanks to efficiency gains, particularly in electricity, and sufficiency, France’s energy demand falls by 35% in 2050, from 1,650 TWh in 2020 to 1,100 TWh/year in 2050. The country achieves sovereignty over most of its domestically consumed energy while also lowering its energy footprint by relocating certain industrial supply chains.

The share of electricity in final energy consumption rises from 27% to 52%, making it the primary energy carrier. It covers most of the energy needs of economic sectors, reducing their reliance on liquid and gaseous fuels. The precise 2050 electricity mix will depend on the actual evolution of the nuclear and renewable power sectors, both of which must be developed.

The liquid and gaseous fuel needs that still exist in 2050 are met partly by biogas and biofuels from agriculture and forestry, but also through hydrogen production via electrolysis, and methane via “power-to-gas” processes. To minimize land use, electricity demand, and dependence on imports, liquid and gaseous fuels are restricted to essential uses.