03 March 2026
New report release
The summary
Aéro Décarbo and Shift are pleased to publish their final report on commercial aviation and its fuels: “Flying without oil: what energy supply for the aviation sector?”
You can now download:
This is the key conclusion of this new report, which shows that so-called sustainable, alternative or non-fossil aviation fuels (SAF) will not be available in sufficient quantities in time to replace fossil kerosene, even under the most optimistic assumptions for improvements in aircraft efficiency.
Commercial aviation is undergoing a profound transformation: the transition to non-fossil fuel propulsion, driven by the combined effects of the climate crisis and growing uncertainties about access to oil. For France and Europe, breaking free from oil dependency is also a matter of sovereignty.
In this context, the Aéro Décarbo association and The Shift Project are publishing Flying without fossil oil, a report that rigorously assesses the real potential of so-called sustainable, alternative or non-fossil aviation fuels (SAF) and the possible supply trajectories for the sector in a constrained world.
The study’s conclusion is clear: SAFs, and e-SAFs in particular, offer the greatest potential among technological solutions, but will not be sufficient if traffic continues to grow at its current rate.
Even in the most optimistic scenarios, SAF production cannot increase quickly enough or in sufficient quantities: as a result, emissions from the sector are not falling enough to comply with the Paris Agreement. At least not without reducing traffic, at least in the short and medium term.
The report demonstrates that the two main families of SAFs — bioSAFs and e-SAFs — are constrained by major physical and logistical factors.
Globally, with traffic growth in line with industry expectations, aviation emissions would hardly decrease by 2050, even with very optimistic assumptions about the deployment of SAFs. In 2050, the aviation sector alone would account for 64% of residual emissions (International Energy Agency’s Net Zero scenario).
Industry players are proposing various ways to increase SAF volumes, some of which may be counterproductive in terms of overall environmental impact. This would be the case if SAF sustainability criteria were weakened or if aviation were prioritised at the expense of other sectors that would make more efficient use of decarbonised energy resources.
France has favourable resources in terms of sustainable biomass and low-carbon electricity, which could help improve the country’s energy sovereignty. However, if French air traffic were to grow at the rate anticipated by the sector, these resources would not be sufficient to comply with European regulations (ReFuelEU), unless 110 TWh were devoted to this purpose each year, representing 20% of current electricity production and 30% of the residual biomass that can be converted into biofuel… solely for aviation.
Thanks to efficiency gains and the gradual incorporation of SAFs, flights in 2040 should be less polluting than they are today. It is therefore essential to moderate traffic growth starting this decade, as long as fossil kerosene remains the main aviation fuel.
Globally, a reduction of at least 15% in traffic within five years would be necessary to remain compatible with a climate trajectory limiting warming to +1.7°C. Such a level would correspond to a temporary return to the situation of the 2010s, a realistic and effective measure to enable everyone to travel less often but sustainably, while ensuring the sector’s long-term viability.
00:02:00 : Introduction by Clément Caudron, aviation expert, The Shift Project
00:05:41 : Presentation of the association, the report’s editorial team and the challenges facing the aviation sector by Timon Vicat-Blanc (President of Aéro Décarbo)
00:10:42 : Presentation of Sustainable Aviation Fuels and their production methods by Gaëtan Dhote (Member of Aéro Décarbo and co-author of the report)
00:21:10 : Explanation of the role of SAFs in decarbonisation scenarios for the aviation sector by Frédérique Rigal (Member of Aéro Décarbo and co-author of the report)
00:33:18 : Focus on French prospects by Timon Vicat-Blanc (President of Aéro Décarbo)
00:40:38 : Reflections on air traffic moderation by Loïc Bonifacio (Vice-President of Aéro Décarbo)
00:51:47 : Questions and answers with the audience
This publication was widely reported in the media (french), notably in:
Contact Aéro Décarbo : contact@decarbo.org / 07 86 65 76 25
Contact Shift Project : clement.caudron@theshiftproject.org / 06 31 65 90 34
