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Aerospace & Defence

The defense and aerospace sectors are heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Faced with upcoming climate and energy shocks, they must urgently reduce this dependence and strengthen their resilience to ensure an ability to function.

Being able to fly in 2050: what aviation in a constrained world?

How can we act today to continue flying tomorrow, in a constrained world? How can the aviation sector be steered toward trajectories compatible with climate challenges and less dependent on fossil fuel supplies?

In 2021, The Shift and the collective Aéro Décarbo published their report on the decarbonization of the aviation sector. This report presents a scenario-based analysis of aviation emissions trajectories through 2050, adopting a holistic approach that takes into account technological and energy aspects, as well as impacts on uses and jobs.

Read the report (in French) "Pouvoir voler en 2050"

A few numbers about the sector

  • 178 million

    passengers, in France, in 2024

  • 1 %

    of the world's population is accountable for 50% of the sector's emissions

  • 2,5 %

    of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2018, and 5% of global warming between 2000 and 2018 when non-CO₂ effects are included.

What decarbonization measures can be implemented at the national level?

In the report “Being able to fly in 2050” (Aero Decarbo & The Shift Project), several decarbonization measures were detailed at the national level to account for the specificities of the territory.

Implement short-term operational efficiency measures

Four emission reduction levers, deployable by 2025, were studied: decarbonizing ground operations, replacing small-capacity jet aircraft with turboprops, limiting fuel tankering, and reducing the cost index of flights to the minimum. However, their impact is limited. By 2050, they contribute only 4% of the required reduction effort. The global scenario study shows that setting a carbon budget makes it necessary to find other short-term reduction measures. Thus, in order to remain within the predefined carbon budget, sobriety in uses becomes unavoidable.

Implement short-term sobriety measures

The reduction of air traffic can either be imposed or proactively anticipated to maintain air transport in the long term while controlling its GHG emissions. This sobriety can result from a decrease in supply or demand. Four short-term supply adaptation levers are proposed: densification of cabins, elimination of flights when a rail alternative exists (under 4h30), limitation of business air travel, and revision of the “miles” system. However, their implementation raises questions about uses, the business model and marketing of airlines, as well as the need for balanced legislation to avoid disadvantaging national players. While these measures could reduce cumulative emissions by 10% in the short term (2021–2025), they are not sufficient to comply with the overall carbon budget.

Going further in sobriety

To respect the set carbon budget, four action areas were identified to complement the reduction of long-distance transport emissions, including aviation:

  • Inform and raise awareness: Develop educational resources on climate issues, regulate the calculation of non-CO₂ effects for aviation, create an official carbon footprint calculator for all means of transport, and strengthen GHG emissions labeling by service providers.

  • Encourage reduced travel: Promote the reduction of professional travel, for example through tax incentives or subsidies for remote collaboration tools.

  • Involve users: Create a citizens’ collective to ensure that sobriety policies are in line with citizens’ expectations, and extend certain proposals from the Citizens’ Climate Convention to long-distance mobility.

  • Regulate usage: Limit aviation activity (airport slots, subsidies, moratoriums on new infrastructure), restrict demand (price, travel rights), and consider a progressive tax based on travel frequency and distance traveled.

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