Industry

Industry sources raw materials (minerals, energy, hydrocarbons, etc.) and transforms them into substances and products (steel, cement, chemicals, etc.). Decarbonizing these activities requires intense access to new energies and materials, which will create competition between several sectors: for example, steel and fertilizers competing for access to decarbonized hydrogen.

As the backbone of all other sectors, industry must enable their transformation by producing the goods and infrastructure they need to decarbonize their activities. It ensures not only the decarbonization of essential products for other sectors (steel bars and plates, concrete blocks, wooden beams, glues, paints, fertilizers, roads, cables, trains, automobiles, teaspoons, and flat-pack furniture, etc.), but also of their new solutions (batteries, wind turbines, recycled materials, cargo bikes, decarbonized hydrogen, etc.).

The PTEF (Territorial Low-Carbon Plan) drives a systemic transformation of the economy; downstream sectors of various industries (heavy, manufacturing) see their dynamics affected, notably by the effects of sobriety levers necessary to meet their decarbonization goals. These changes in goods consumption in downstream sectors affect the demand that drives heavy industry and have thus been taken into account in describing the decarbonized industry of 2050.

Industry uses various energy vectors to power its value chains, in an intense and often hard-to-substitute way: gas to produce the high temperatures needed for brick or cement production, hydrocarbons as raw materials in petrochemicals and fertilizers, coal for steel production, etc. A major transformation of the energy system and fuel supply will require rethinking all industrial activities, which are strongly constrained by the chemistry of the processes they involve.

he mobilization of existing and available improvement techniques and levers must be continued and intensified:

• In steel: This involves increasing steel recycling within France by further developing the electric steel sector (relying on the decarbonized French electricity mix) and introducing scrap metal into the blast furnace process. Additionally, energy efficiency improvements must continue wherever still possible.

• In cement: French cement plants and kilns must be brought up to the best global standards of energy efficiency while maximizing the use of alternative fuels in the energy mix (biomass, etc.). Concrete standards should be adapted as soon as possible to allow technical progress. Optimization of cement dosages in concrete, and the amounts of concrete in constructions, should be made possible through regulatory adjustments. Furthermore, a “CO2” criterion should be integrated into public works and civil engineering tenders, in line with carbon content reduction goals in other construction sectors, such as housing with RE2020.

• In chemistry: Petroleum and gas are currently the main inputs for the chemical industry. The sector’s current roadmap focuses on continuous process improvements, use of alternative energy sources (biomass and solid residues) instead of gas, and better recovery of waste heat. The ongoing reduction of HFC use must continue, as well as the reduction of N2O through known and affordable technologies. Energy efficiency is already near its maximum in this sector.

Technological breakthroughs must be made possible. Among the innovations that can be mobilized:

• In steel: In the short term, develop “Smart Carbon” technologies to substitute coke and coal with reinjection of blast furnace gases and potentially hydrogen. In the longer term, deploying hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron ore instead of fossil resources is key to intense decarbonization of virgin steel production.

• In cement: To reduce concrete use, material mixing should become the norm. Mixed concrete-wood structures should be generalized, especially in single-family homes. Other materials, notably bio- and geo-sourced (straw, hemp, earth…), and other construction systems (e.g., sandwich panels) can be explored. At the same time, the emergence of low-carbon cements with low clinker content must be supported so regulatory, economic, and technical frameworks enable it.

• In chemistry: Scaling up water electrolysis for hydrogen production is a key step in decarbonizing nitrogen fertilizers. Coupled with electrification of some processes (such as vapor recompression or heat pump use) and efforts to deploy chemical plastic recycling chains, a substantial emission reduction in chemistry could be achieved. Establishing a carbon content standard for nitrogen fertilizers would facilitate the transition to low-carbon hydrogen, which should be prioritized for ammonia production.

• Cross-sectorally: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) must be mobilized to capture residual industrial emissions, which will still rely on some inevitably CO2-generating processes, especially in certain eligible steel and cement installations. In chemistry, CCS can be implemented on ammonia production for fertilizers, which is well suited due to the high concentration of CO2 in its fumes.

• In steel: The decline in new construction and the growing use of bio- and geo-sourced building materials reduce reinforced concrete use. The lightening of vehicles (lighter cars, intermediate vehicles, etc.), combined with changing mobility patterns that reduce the number of new vehicles produced each year, decrease steel demand for mobility.

• In cement: The shift from new construction to building renovation, coupled with optimized concrete use (design of structures and buildings), leads to reduced demand for this material. This occurs alongside diversification in construction materials, with increased use of bio- and geo-sourced materials replacing cement concrete.

• In chemistry: To reach the required reduction in fossil liquid supply, demand for virgin plastic resins must significantly decrease. This includes acting on packaging, catching up with the best-performing European countries in plastic recycling, extending the European directive on plastic packaging recycling to other non-single-use packaging, and gradually eliminating plastic packaging (State’s 3R plan). It also requires adapting to lower demand from the automotive sector (fewer and lighter vehicles). Regarding nitrogen fertilizers, their agricultural use decreases substantially due to changes in farming methods and models, while at least part of their production could be relocated to France if the necessary choice is made regarding electricity supply.

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The carbon impact of vehicle manufacturing increases with the amount of material used. Therefore, reducing vehicle weight is a priority. Modifying and harmonizing European regulations should lead manufacturers to reinvest in the segment of small, affordable electric cars tailored to user needs, including battery size.

This offering of small, affordable electric vehicles will help restore production volumes in France and accelerate the electrification and decarbonization of the vehicle fleet. The phase-out of internal combustion engines in favor of battery electric vehicles for nearly all light mobility uses must be carried out without hesitation according to planned deadlines.

At the European level: a complementary regulation on the energy efficiency of new vehicles could be introduced, eventually replacing the current CO2/km standards once new combustion vehicles are phased out. This would allow energy performance to be considered over the entire vehicle lifecycle.
At the French and European levels: support for the demand for efficient electric vehicles remains necessary alongside a strong industrial policy to develop and produce small vehicles with a high local content.

New, efficient alternatives to conventional cars could emerge in France:

• bicycles (especially e-bikes) and electric two-wheelers, which have significant potential for modal shift,

• microcars that can cover a wide range of medium and long daily trips.

To achieve this, the Light Intermediate Vehicle (VELIS) sector must be supported in R&D and industrialization. Furthermore, French and European regulatory frameworks need to be adapted to enable their emergence.

The combination of the three types of decarbonization levers (continuous improvement, technological breakthrough, and sobriety) allows for an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the cement industry. The volumes of cement and concrete produced and consumed will decrease by 40% and 30% respectively by 2050 to adapt to the evolving demand and to the mobilization of optimization levers for quantities per constructed structure. Due to these changes, job losses are likely in cement plants and the concrete industry. To address this, job transfer and adaptation towards other materials, including bio-based materials, will be possible and necessary in the long term both for manufacturing (industry) and implementation (construction companies).

It is the combination of the three types of decarbonization levers (continuous improvement, technological breakthrough, and sobriety) that makes it possible to reach the decarbonization objectives of the chemical sector. The industry must also adapt to significant disruptions in its downstream market and production volumes: a one-third decrease in plastic volumes produced by 2050, an increase in recycled plastics production, and a reduction in demand for nitrogen fertilizers. Employment volume decreases in plastic production but could increase in recycling. It could also increase in nitrogen fertilizer production if its production is relocated. Finally, significant use of hydrogen and associated low-carbon electricity, produced locally, replaces the use of imported natural gas.

It is the combination of the three types of decarbonization levers (continuous improvement, technological breakthrough, and sobriety) that makes it possible to reach the decarbonization objectives of the chemical sector. The industry must also adapt to significant disruptions in its downstream market and production volumes: a one-third decrease in plastic volumes produced by 2050, an increase in recycled plastics production, and a reduction in demand for nitrogen fertilizers. Employment volume decreases in plastic production but could increase in recycling. It could also increase in nitrogen fertilizer production if its production is relocated. Finally, significant use of hydrogen and associated low-carbon electricity, produced locally, replaces the use of imported natural gas.

The Shift Project’s vision for mobility in 2050 is based on a strong rebalancing of different modes of transport, with a significant increase in the share of bicycles and Light Intermediate Vehicles (VELIS) as well as public transport.

It outlines a landscape significantly different from the current market and automotive fleet. The need for individual car travel decreases sharply, leading to a new vehicle market in 2050 that is 40% smaller than in 2019 (or 20% smaller than in 2023). The vehicle fleet should also decrease significantly, with cars still present where alternatives do not exist. In parallel, new vehicles produced domestically will be democratized (bicycles, electric two-wheelers, and micro-cars). Vehicles will remain comfortable, more adapted to uses, much more efficient, sober, and relying on low-carbon energy (mostly electricity). New sectors will emerge for the production of these new vehicles and around the circular economy (refurbishment, recycling of vehicles and batteries).