The agriculture and food sectors are on the front line of adaptation challenges in the face of increasing climate stress. In this threatening context, they contribute to the decarbonization of society as a whole (through carbon storage and biomass production), while facing the challenge of the dual carbon constraint. Unlike other sectors, however, their emissions are not limited to CO₂ and are mainly generated by diffuse and complex biological processes.
Emissions from these sectors are primarily non-energy-related (in agriculture: 85% of direct sector emissions are methane and nitrous oxide). Biological processes are also taken into account (ruminant enteric fermentation, soil and manure management, etc.).
On fossil fuels (oil products, natural gas), synthetic products (mineral fertilizers, pesticides), and other critical resources (phosphorus, water).
The anticipated growth of non-food uses of agricultural biomass in other sectors (for bioenergy, biomaterials, biochemistry) requires planning to arbitrate between these uses.
The differentiated impacts of climate change (droughts, heat stress, excess water, etc.) on crop types and areas lead to specific adaptation needs in agriculture.
Diffuse pollution (nitrates, ammonia, pesticide residues, etc.) affects air, soil, and water quality, whose degradation can impact other sectors (health, housing, industry…).
An estimation of the impact of planned transformations of agricultural and forestry systems on labor and training requirements.
1/4
49 %
3/4
675 000
The Shift explores all levers of decarbonization: substitution between energy sources, efficiency, and sufficiency, regardless of the technological and behavioral changes required. Mobilizing all available levers is the best guarantee for achieving decarbonization targets.
Relocating and decarbonizing mineral nitrogen fertilizer production, which is a major source of GHG emissions (N₂O and CO₂) and environmental pollution (nitrates, nitrogen oxides). Reducing their use by redeploying legumes (primary sources of nitrogen) and improving nitrogen recycling through the recovery of excreta, organic fertilizers, and digestates (by-products of methanization).
Transforming livestock systems is essential to reduce GHG emissions and increase resilience. This involves supporting herd reductions and their spatial redistribution, which would bring both climate and ecosystem benefits (food autonomy, grasslands favorable to biodiversity and carbon storage, better nutrient management at the national scale…). The transition towards autonomous, low-input livestock systems is also key to boosting resilience.
This evolution involves both energy savings and the substitution of fossil fuels with low-carbon sources (electricity, biogas, biofuels). Decarbonizing the machinery fleet is achievable by 2050. Farms can also move towards energy self-sufficiency with renewables (photovoltaics, biomethane, biofuels), provided resource competition is anticipated and low-energy farming practices are encouraged.
Faced with climate and energy pressures, agriculture must combine mitigation and adaptation, which implies: adapting crops to new soil-climate contexts, preserving biodiversity, improving water resource management (resilient irrigation, limiting diffuse pollution), and developing low-input systems (autonomous, low-input livestock systems, permaculture micro-farms…).
Although temporary, carbon storage in agriculture must be strengthened as it also improves soil health, biodiversity, and agricultural system resilience. Two priorities: preserving existing stocks (grasslands, hedges, trees) and increasing sinks through storing practices (cover crops, agroforestry, temporary grasslands, organic fertilization…).
To restore natural and resilient biogeochemical cycles (nitrogen, carbon, phosphorus), agriculture must enhance circularity at the territorial scale. This involves several structural changes: relocalizing animal feed to reduce soybean imports, redistributing livestock across the territory to better manage effluents, and improving organic waste recycling (human excreta, biowaste). These actions allow better distribution of nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus) across France, preserving soil fertility and limiting certain diffuse pollution affecting ecosystems (e.g., nitrate discharge into water).
The agricultural sector is highly dependent on transport and the availability of low-cost oil. To increase resilience, it is necessary to decarbonize uses, relocalize production whenever possible, and reconfigure logistics flows through a better distribution of activities across the territory, anticipating a future where energy will be scarcer and more expensive.
The agricultural sector manages to produce sufficient biomass to cover the needs of the French population as well as livestock feed, notably thanks to strong growth in legume production.
The conciliation scenario proposed by The Shift Project would achieve a net reduction in agricultural emissions to 38 MtCO₂e/year by 2050, through three major levers: reduced use of nitrogen fertilizers (-70%), reduced herd sizes and renewed livestock systems, and decarbonization of the energy used. In addition, carbon storage in soils and biomass would provide 15.6 MtCO₂e/year of mitigation, although this potential is reversible and dependent on storing practices (hedges, agroforestry, grasslands…).
In the conciliation scenario proposed by The Shift Project, French agriculture becomes fully decarbonized and energy self-sufficient by 2050. This horizon is made possible by several transformations: electrification and decarbonization of equipment, widespread adoption of no-till practices, reduced nitrogen fertilizer use, reintroduction of legumes, preservation of permanent grasslands, more autonomous livestock systems, and the development of carbon sinks (agroforestry, hedges…).
